Approach
Better project investment decisions under uncertainty.
A static spreadsheet returns one number. The world returns a distribution. ProDecs models the uncertainty, prices the flexibility, and gives you back a decision you can defend.
Deterministic NPV is a poor decision base.
Energy investment is evaluated based on a single forecasted NPV combined with a simple sensitivity analysis. That number underestimates the real uncertainty. The result — wrong allocation of capital, failed projects and missed profitable opportunities.
We replace the point estimate with the underlying distribution, and the rigid plan with a policy that adapts as information arrives.
How ProDecs works.
One method, three movements. Uncertainty in, decision out. Nothing in between is hidden.
- 01
Model the uncertainty
Technical, cost, and market inputs enter as distributions with correlations taken into account. All risks are combined together rather than focusing on just a handful of them.
- 02
See the real risk profile
NPV, IRR, breakeven and payback as full distributions, each with a probability of crossing a needed sanctioning threshold. Every simulation is traceable.
- 03
Optimize the decision
Run the portfolio optimization to get an optimal decision policy, accounting for the value of flexibility in projects that can adapt to uncertainty as new information arrives. See when to sanction, expand, stage, switch, or walk, and at what scale.
Where flexibility lives.
Every phase of an energy project holds at least one decision that changes expected NPV. ProDecs prices them as one adaptive policy.
- 01
Concept
Wait or commit
3–5 yrs - 02
Planning
Capacity sizing
1–2 yrs - 03
Development
Stage or defer
2–4 yrs - 04
Production
Expand, switch, idle
15–25 yrs - 05
Decommissioning
Extend or repurpose
2–5 yrs
Where this comes from.
ProDecs is a research-based NTNU spin-off built on the methodology developed inside the BRU21 Research and Innovation programme since 2018. The programme spans cybernetics, data science, engineering and economics, focused on investment valuation under uncertainty. Three doctoral theses, six master projects and over ten peer-reviewed publications are underlying our work.
We have been collaborating with the Norwegian offshore industry since day 1, validating our concept for decision making and investment valuation under uncertainty based on dozens of case studies and developing our software product together with the industry.
Improve your investment decisions in energy projects.
Talk to us about a pilot, or join the Joint Industry Project on portfolio optimisation.